The policy instruments and the risk of conflict in rural village energy transition: the case of the coal-to-gas policy in Hebei Province, China

As a typical case of authoritarian environmentalism, China's large-scale energy transition showcases state capacity yet carries under-examined conflict risks. This study examines rural “coal-to-gas” policy implementation, employing an extended Theory of Planned Behavior framework to model farmer-government interactions. Structural equation modeling reveals that farmers' and governments' behavioral intentions significantly positively influence farmers' policy responses, with standardized path coefficients of 0.856 and 0.207 respectively. The energy transition conflict risk index is 0.240, indicating that top-down implementation enhances efficiency but triggers energy justice losses and conflict risks by disregarding farmer preferences. These findings offer theoretical insights for balancing policy effectiveness and social acceptance within authoritarian environmentalism.