The Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Services in Karst Geological Parks Under Tourism Development in China

The sustainable development of ecologically sensitive areas, such as geoparks, requires a comprehensive understanding of the complex interactions between tourism expansion and ecosystem services (ESs). This study investigates these relationships through a case study of the Enshi Grand Canyon—Tenglongdong Cave UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization) Global Geopark, a representative karst landscape in China. We developed an integrated analytical framework that combines multi-source data with coupled modeling approaches, including the Integrated Valuation of ES and Tradeoffs (InVEST), Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), and structural equation modeling (SEM). This framework overcomes the limitations of single-method analyses and enables a comprehensive diagnosis of the spatiotemporal drivers and pathways influencing ES dynamics. Using this approach, we analyzed the evolution of ESs and their driving factors from 2010 to 2020. The results reveal that natural factors remained the dominant drivers of ESs (accounting for over 73% of total variation), while tourism impacts increased substantially over time and exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, (1) the tourism-driven expansion of construction land occurred largely at the expense of cultivated land and grassland, directly reducing ESs; (2) proximity to scenic areas intensified negative ecological effects, whereas proximity to roads and hotels displayed more complex, and occasionally positive, influences; and (3) tourism primarily affected ESs indirectly through land use/cover change (LUCC). This study provides a transferable framework for analyzing tourism–ecosystem service interactions and underscores the necessity of ecological zoning and adaptive management in vulnerable karst regions, offering valuable insights for the sustainable governance of other fragile ecosystems worldwide.