Exploring the effects of space weather-caused satellite navigation failure on fuel consumption and aircraft emissions: A simulated study

Satellite navigation provides aircraft with precise positioning and navigation services. However, space weather can induce ionospheric irregularities and elevate the total electron content in the ionosphere, causing satellite navigation failure. Consequently, aircraft will navigate using ground aids and be disabled to fly along Great Circle Routes, increasing flight distance, fuel consumption, and aircraft emissions. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure on flight operation, this study simulates satellite navigation failure scenarios and proposes Air Traffic Management (ATM) solutions. Specifically, the first step designs the ground aid-based shortest path using the Dijkstra algorithm, followed by the calculations of fuel consumption and aircraft emissions using the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) and the aircraft Engine Emissions Databank (EEDB), respectively. Based on the collected 11,037 U.S. flight plans on 5 February 2024 (UTC), simulations show that a single-day satellite navigation failure can result in an increase of flight distances by 2,371,777 km, fuel consumption of 7176 tons, and CO 2 emission of 22,604 tons. While this study focuses on simulations in the U.S., the findings have a broad implication and can serve as a framework to address space weather effects on aviation in other regions of the world. • Quantified the impact of space weather-induced satellite navigation failures on U.S. aviation fuel consumption and emissions. • Proposed the flight rerouting model for via ground-based navigation to mitigate satellite navigation failure impact. • Evaluated the economic losses caused by satellite navigation failures under different air traffic management strategies.