From Grants to Lobbying: The Evolution of American Soft Power in the South Caucasus (2010–2024)

The article analyzes the evolution of the "soft power" tools of the United States in the South Caucasus from 2010 to 2024, focusing on the transition from humanitarian grant programs by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to institutionalized lobbying. Based on an extensive empirical foundation – 412 OSF and NED grants, 57 FARA contracts, 124 congressional hearing transcripts, and 38 semi-structured interviews–the study identifies the factors that determined the three-phase dynamics of soft power. The novelty of the work is reflected in the comparative analysis of the effectiveness of grant and lobbying mechanisms, measured by the "lobby-induced risk" (LIR) index, as well as in the mapping of networks of influence using social network analysis. The practical significance relates to the development of indicators for preventing escalations and recommendations for the national security strategies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Methodologically, the study compares qualitative data on cultural exchange programs with statistics on lobbying disclosures under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Source triangulation is employed, where quantitative indicators (the volume of allocated grants, the number of mentions of the South Caucasus in congressional hearing transcripts) are correlated with narrative analysis of foreign policy papers. A quasi-causal procedure QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) is used. The novelty of the work is demonstrated by the comparative analysis of the effectiveness of grant and lobbying mechanisms, measured by the "lobby-induced risk" (LIR) index, as well as the mapping of influence networks through social network analysis. The practical significance relates to the development of indicators to prevent escalations and recommendations for national security strategies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The main conclusions indicate that the evolution of American soft power in the South Caucasus is progressive: from humanitarian grants to institutionalized lobbying with a strong defense content. The identified LIR index shows a statistically significant correlation between the volumes of lobbying expenditures and the likelihood of armed incidents. The practical contribution of the work consists of proposals to reduce lobby-induced risks, primarily through enhancing transparency and developing multilateral security formats (OSCE, EU Global Gateway). Further research could compare the American model of soft power with the Chinese and Turkish models for a comprehensive understanding of influence in the region.