Spatial distribution and habitat suitability of Ageratina adenophora in Himachal Pradesh: A MaxEnt-based approach

Invasive alien plant species are a growing threat to biodiversity, particularly in ecologically vulnerable zones like the Indian Himalayan Region. Among these, Ageratina adenophora belonging to family Asteraceae has emerged as a significant invader, rapidly colonizing degraded and disturbed habitats and threatening native flora. The current study aimed to map the distribution and habitat suitability of Ageratina adenophora in Himachal Pradesh using the MaxEnt species distribution modelling. Field surveys, Global biodiversity information facility data, and literature records were compiled to gather species occurrence points of Ageratina adenophora . Environmental predictors, including 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and topographical factors like elevation, slope, and aspect, were used to study the distribution. The MaxEnt model achieved an average Area under curve of 0.909, indicating high predictive accuracy. Results showed that Ageratina adenophora currently occupies approximately 10.33 per cent of the state’s area under high invasion risk, primarily in districts like Chamba, Sirmaur, Kangra, Shimla, Kullu, and Mandi. Another 14.44 per cent of the area falls under moderate risk and 20.49 per cent under low risk. The species is most prevalent in the subtropical to warm temperate zones between 1000 and 2500 m above mean sea level. Key environmental drivers included isothermality (Bio3) and temperature seasonality (Bio4), which contributed 22.6 percent and 25 percent respectively, while precipitation seasonality (Bio15) had the highest permutation importance of 17.7 percent. The study concludes that climate variability and habitat disturbance strongly influence the spread of Ageratina adenophora , posing serious challenges to native biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Mapping current risk zones can support proactive management and policy intervention strategies.