National assessment of habitat shifts and conservation gaps for waterbirds under global change

Studies on the effects of global changes on waterbird habitats at the national scale remain limited, and how species' traits regulate these effects is still poorly understood. Here, we compiled more than 350,000 distribution records for 136 waterbirds in China to assess projected habitat shifts under future environmental scenarios and the conservation effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) at the national scale. Our results showed that under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios projected for 2070, habitat area and habitat aggregation are expected to decrease for more than half of the studied species; moreover, the magnitude of these changes was greater for threatened species, species with narrower habitat preferences, and migratory species. The reduction in habitat suitability was smaller inside PAs compared with that outside PAs in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, even when the analysis was restricted to threatened, non-threatened, specialist, generalist, resident, and non-resident species. Conservation gaps were identified for 40 % of habitat refuges under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, and these were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Xizang, Qinghai, and Gansu, which were provinces with low levels of economic development and small percentage conservation gap. We recommend prioritizing the expansion of the existing network of PAs in these regions. Maintaining the connection of suitable areas in the present and those in the future aimed to guarantee the survival of the species. Additionally, targeted conservation strategies that balance biodiversity conservation and regional development are needed for Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, which show large conservation gaps and high levels of economic development. • It is first national assessment of habitat shift and priority conservation sites for waterbird species in China. • We mapped 408 distribution ranges figures for 136 species in 2020, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios in 2070. • Threatened, specialist, and non-resident species experienced greater habitat area reduction than other species. • The reduction in habitat suitability was smaller inside protected areas (PAs) compared with that outside PAs. • Priority area sites were identified combined conservation gap and economic development level.