A spatiotemporal analysis of four decades of temperature-precipitation interactions and their agricultural consequences in Bangladesh

Understanding the interaction between temperature change and precipitation patterns is essential for assessing climate variability and its consequences in Bangladesh. This study investigates the seasonal and decadal dynamics of temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh from 1982 to 2021 using meteorological data integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). Our analysis of four seasons: winter (DJF), pre-monsoon (MAM), summer (JJA), and post-monsoon (SON) revealed a pronounced and significant warming trend across all seasons, with the most accelerated heating occurring during the pre-monsoon period (+ 1 °C/decade, p < 0.05). Precipitation trends were strongly heterogeneous, with a significant pre-monsoon decline (− 4.6 mm per decade, p < 0.05) intensifying drought risk, contrasting intensified monsoon rainfall in the southeast. Critically, a significant negative correlation (r = − 0.3497, p < 0.05) between temperature and precipitation during the pre-monsoon reveals a feedback loop that exacerbates water scarcity. These findings suggest that higher winter temperatures and reduced rainfall may increase irrigation demand, whereas heavier monsoon rains could heighten flood risks. Overall, this study advances current knowledge by quantifying the critical pre-monsoon temperature-precipitation feedback, providing a vital evidence base for policymakers to develop distinct adaptation strategies for drought and flood resilience in Bangladesh and similar monsoon regions.