Understanding the evolution of homicide-related crimes in Mexico: a TOPSIS-Markovian approach

The presented analysis provides important evidence of longitudinal spatial and temporal changes in homicide-related crimes in Mexico between January 2015 and June 2024 in 276 geographical regions. For this purpose, a combination of TOPSIS multi-criteria decision analysis method and Markov chain approach was used. The results revealed low month-to-month variations in homicide-related crimes occurrence across the country, as the 15 most violent regions have remained nearly unchanged since 2015. In this case, the results indicate a 76.96% probability that highly violent regions remain so, while there is only a 17.90% chance of improvement. The presented findings provide insights into the structural and dynamic factors perpetuating violence, contributing to more effective security policies.