Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Forest Carbon Sequestration and Spatial Heterogeneity of Influencing Factors: Evidence from the Beiluo River Basin in the Loess Plateau, China

To accurately analyze the dynamic response and driving mechanism of forest carbon sequestration in the core area of the Loess Plateau’s Returning Farmland to Forestry Project, this study takes the Beiluo River Basin as the research area. Using spatial autocorrelation, gravity model, a geodetector, and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression models, it analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of forest carbon sequestration and the spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors based on 2000–2023 data. The results show the following: (1) Forest carbon sequestration in the basin increased by 13.55% from 2000 to 2023; its spatial pattern shifted from “middle reaches concentration” to “stable middle reaches core plus significant upper reaches growth”, with the gravity center moving “southeast then northwest”. (2) Forest carbon sequestration had significant positive spatial correlation, with hotspots in soil–rock mountain forest areas and cold spots in ecologically fragile or high-human-activity areas. (3) Natural ecological factors dominated forest carbon sequestration evolution, socioeconomic factors enhanced synergy, and evapotranspiration and NDVI had significant impacts. (4) Factor impacts had spatiotemporal heterogeneity, such as the decaying positive effect of precipitation and the “positive-negative-equilibrium” change in forestry value-added. This study provides scientific guidance for basin and Loess Plateau ecological restoration and “double carbon” goal achievement.