Investigating future Komodo dragon habitat alteration in the human-dominated landscape

Background: Komodo dragons (Varanus komodoensis) are the largest lizard species in the world, with only a few in Indonesia. While much of the global attention and conservation efforts have focused on populations within Komodo National Park, Flores Island supports the largest landmass of its remaining habitat outside the park. The conservation condition in Flores differs from those of Komodo, Rinca, Padar, Gili Motang, and Gili Dasami Islands due to the existence of both conservation and non-conservation areas, diverse landscapes, and land use changes caused by humans. These characteristics make Flores ecologically important and irreplaceable for sustaining genetically and ecologically distinct populations of Komodo dragons. This study aims to evaluate the sustainability of Komodo dragon habitats in Flores using Landsat 7/ETM+ imagery from 2000 to 2020, which then became the basis for the patch-generating land use simulation model until 2050 based on two analysed scenarios, namely the business as usual scenario and the optimistic scenario. The year 2050 was chosen as the final baseline in this study to correspond with the timeline of Indonesia's Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience. The results of this model will then be analysed for landscape quality by evaluating and integrating them using four landscape indices (i.e., land cover, number of patches, effective mesh size, and like adjacencies). Results: The results of this study show that habitat fragmentation is still a major problem despite the increase in habitat area in both scenarios. Concerns about population isolation and decreased genetic exchange arise due to the large number of small patches and low spatial connectivity on Flores Island, especially in non-conservation areas. Although the optimistic scenario offers better outcomes for landscape cohesion, particularly for savanna and mangrove habitats, monsoon forests remain spatially disjointed. Conclusions: The study highlights the problem of fragmented habitats for Komodo dragons on Flores. Improving connectivity and maintaining genetic exchange is crucial, particularly in non-conservation areas. The study suggests that conservation efforts should concentrate on landscape cohesion and the ecological integrity of all habitats, particularly monsoon forests.