Understand systemic risk from mangrove ecosystem through network analysis

Mangrove deforestation amplifies systemic risks by worsening extreme weather events, impeding socio-economic development, and exposing governance vulnerabilities. Yet, the extent to which mangrove dynamics—both loss and restoration—interact with climate, socio-economic, and governance systems to mitigate systemic risk remains underexplored. Drawing on the economic concept of ‘product space,’ we construct a Mangrove Multisystemic Risk Space, a network-based framework linking indicators across mangrove change, climate impacts, socio-economic development, and policy interventions. The network reveals a bipartite structure, with distinct clusters for mangrove loss and expansion, each surrounded by synergistic indicators. The mangrove loss cluster is tightly coupled with greenhouse gas emissions and climate extremes, while the expansion cluster aligns with renewable energy, economic growth, and population dynamics. Within this space, we identify two types of structurally significant indicators: ‘influential’ (e.g., Ramsar site coverage) with high cascading potential, and ‘complex’ indicators that require coordinated improvements across multiple dimensions, highlighting their systemic vulnerability. At the national level, the United States leads in achieving complex goals such as reducing extreme events, whereas New Zealand and Panama emerge as hubs of influential, well-performing indicators. These findings underscore the differentiated roles of mangrove-rich nations in mitigating systemic risk and call for strengthened global cooperation in mangrove conservation.