Designing and long-term planning for household hydrogen supply chain in Australia

This study presents the development of the long-term Household Hydrogen Supply Chain (HHSC) model, aimed at supporting the decarbonisation of household energy consumption. Structured across three strategic phases: foundation, expansion, and maturation, the model facilitates the systematic phase-out of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 2045 and natural gas (NG) by 2080. Employing demand estimation methodologies grounded in historical data and exponential decay functions, the study forecasts long-term hydrogen adoption trajectories and allocates regional demand to optimise infrastructure placement. A network optimisation model identifies the optimal locations and capacities of national, regional, and local distribution centres (NDCs, RDCs, and LDCs). This staged development ensures operational scalability, geographic equity, and financial viability. A key finding is the substantial increase in profitability from $479 million in 2026 to $88.26 billion by 2090, driven by infrastructure growth and increasing hydrogen demand. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the adoption during the mid years (2040–2060) is particularly vulnerable to cost fluctuations. The model supports net-zero 2050 goals and aligns with several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDGs 7, 9, and 13. While the HHSC provides a structured pathway for long-term hydrogen transition, future research should focus on enhancing the resilience of the HHSC by incorporating real-time data integration, assessing vulnerability to supply chain disruptions, and developing risk mitigation strategies to ensure continuity and scalability in hydrogen delivery under uncertain operating conditions.