Forecasted Yield Responses of Carrot, Celeriac and Red Beet to Sprinkler Irrigation Under Climate Change in a Highly Water-Deficient Area of Central Poland

Drought events are a major constraint on vegetable production in central Poland, one of the country’s most water-deficient agricultural regions. Supplemental irrigation is considered a key adaptation strategy to mitigate drought-induced yield losses, yet its future effectiveness under climate change remains uncertain. This study forecasts the yield responses of three important root vegetables—carrot, celeriac, and red beet—to sprinkler irrigation under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the period 2021–2100. Yield increments achievable through irrigation for normal, medium dry, and very dry years across four counties in central Poland were estimated using a linear model relating irrigation-induced yield gains to precipitation deficits during the critical water demand periods for each crop. The results show that irrigation will consistently enhance yields, with the largest increments occurring in very dry years. Across most counties, yield responses were higher under RCP 4.5 than under RCP 8.5, indicating that more severe climate change may reduce the relative benefits of irrigation. Regression analysis revealed a significant declining trend in yield increments under RCP 8.5 for all crops, whereas under RCP 4.5, slight but statistically insignificant increases were observed for celeriac and red beet in Wągrowiec county. The findings highlight irrigation as an essential tool for sustaining vegetable yields in drought-prone regions, while also emphasizing the need for broader adaptation strategies under future climate variability.