CIBUSmod 25.09: a spatially disaggregated biophysical agri-food systems model for studying national-level demand- and production-side intervention scenarios

Abstract. CIBUSmod 25.09 is an open-source, spatially disaggregated biophysical model designed to evaluate resource use and environmental impacts in agri-food systems on national and sub-national level under future scenarios involving changes in demand and agricultural production systems. It provides a flexible, modular framework that can integrate regionalised data on crop and livestock production systems at the spatial resolution and aggregation level available. In the model agricultural production is distributed regionally to meet an exogenous demand, while enforcing several constraints that ensure internally consistent scenarios that are biophysically and agronomically feasible. Using Sweden as a case study, the model's application is demonstrated by constructing and validating a baseline and conducting a scenario analysis. The results highlight CIBUSmod's ability to quantify trade-offs in land use, nutrient flows, and greenhouse gas emissions across different transition pathways. The model is designed to be accessible, utilising Python and Jupyter Notebooks with Excel-based input data management. It is publicly available under the GNU GPLv3 licence. By enhancing transparency and usability in food systems modelling, CIBUSmod serves as a valuable tool for researchers to explore sustainable agri-food systems transitions at national and sub-national scales.