Using Radiomics and Explainable Ensemble Learning to Predict Radiation Pneumonitis and Survival in NSCLC Patients Post-VMAT

<b>Purpose</b>: This study aimed to develop a precise predictive model to assess the risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP) and three-year survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) following volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Radiomics features, ensemble stacking, and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) were integrated to enhance predictive performance and clinical interpretability. <b>Materials and Methods</b>: A retrospective cohort of 221 NSCLC patients treated with VMAT at Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital between 2013 and 2023 was analyzed, including 168 patients for RP prediction (47 with ≥grade 2 RP) and 118 patients for survival prediction (34 deaths). Clinical variables, dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters, and radiomic features (original, Laplacian of Gaussian [LoG], and wavelet filtered) were extracted. ANOVA was used for initial feature reduction, followed by LASSO and Boruta-SHAP for feature selection, which formed 10 feature subsets. The data were divided at an 8:2 ratio into training and testing sets, with SMOTE balancing and 10-fold cross-validation for parameter optimization. Six models-logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), XGBoost, and Ensemble Stacking-were evaluated in terms of the AUC, accuracy (ACC), negative predictive value (NPV), precision, and F1 score. SHAP analysis was applied to interpret feature contributions. <b>Results</b>: For RP prediction, the LASSO-selected radiomic subset (FR) combined with Ensemble Stacking achieved optimal performance (AUC 0.91, ACC 0.89), with SHAP identifying V40 Firstorder_Min as the most influential feature. For survival prediction, the FR subset yielded an AUC of 0.97, an ACC of 0.92, and an NPV of 1.00, with V10 Wavelet Firstorder_Min as the top contributor. The multimodal subset (FC+R) also performed strongly, achieving an AUC of 0.91 for RP and 0.96 for survival. <b>Conclusions</b>: This study demonstrated the superior performance of radiomics combined with Ensemble Stacking and XAI for the prediction of RP and survival following VMAT in patients with NSCLC. SHAP-based interpretation enhances transparency and clinical trust, offering a robust foundation for personalized radiotherapy and precision medicine.