From concentration to dispersion: trends toward counter-urbanization in China from 2000 to 2020

Understanding the dynamics of population distribution and stages of urban development is crucial for sustainable urban planning. This study examines population shifts at the township level in mainland China from 2000 to 2020, visualizes demographic changes, assesses the evolution of spatial inequality, and analyzes urbanization trends. We find that lower-ranked cities are rapidly urbanizing despite population declines, while higher-ranked cities exhibit various patterns of dispersion. Top-tier cities are achieving a more balanced population distribution, contrasting with the growing spatial inequality in lower-ranked cities. Diverse urban development stages occur concurrently among Chinese cities: lower-ranked cities remain in the urbanization phase with concentrated populations, higher-ranked cities exhibit trends of suburbanization, and top-ranked cities are transitioning toward counter-urbanization. This study introduces a universally applicable method for analyzing urban growth patterns over time and across regions, offering valuable insights into the global diversity of urbanization processes.