A study on the impact of industrial structure changes on regional economies based on a panel smoothing threshold regression model

To understand the relationship between industrial structure changes and regional economic growth, this article takes the panel data of 31 provinces in China and uses TL and TS to measure the characteristics of industrial structure changes. The research focuses on the industrial structure characteristics of different regions at different time periods, and respectively constructs PSTR models with TL and TS as thresholds, namely Model A and Model B, to analyze the relationship between industrial structure changes and regional economic growth. The analysis results reveal that on the impact of TL on regional economic growth, as the value of TL increases, the influence coefficient shows a decline followed by an increase. When the opening up to the outside world remains unchanged and government expenditure increases, the influence coefficient curve changes the most. This indicates that government support has the greatest impact on the influence coefficient in Model A. With the increase of the TS value, regional economic growth shows an initial increase followed by a decrease, both of which have nonlinear characteristics. Among different control variable values, government expenditure has the greatest impact on the coefficient curve. The government should do a good job in guiding and reasonable regulation to promote the sound development of the regional economy. There exists a close nonlinear relationship between industrial structure changes and regional economic growth. When the TL value is higher than 0.831, the driving effect of industrial structure changes on economic growth becomes more significant. Before the TS value reaches the critical threshold, an increase in government spending can enhance regional economic vitality.