Machine Learning Reveals Novel Pediatric Heart Failure Phenotypes with Distinct Mortality and Hospitalization Outcomes
<b>Background</b>: Pediatric heart failure (PHF) is a heterogeneous syndrome with high morbidity, but existing classification systems inadequately capture its developmental and pathophysiological complexity due to reliance on adult-centric parameters. Using machine learning, we aimed to identify clinically distinct PHF phenotypes with unique outcomes and therapeutic implications. <b>Methods</b>: In this multicenter retrospective study, we analyzed 2903 consecutive PHF patients (≤18 years) from 30 Chinese tertiary centers from 20 provinces (2013-2022). Unsupervised machine learning (k-means clustering with PCA) evaluated 99 clinical, biomarker, and echocardiographic variables to derive phenotypes, which were compared for mortality, hospitalization, and treatment responses. <b>Results</b>: Three phenotypically distinct clusters emerged. Cluster 1 (Chronic Hypertensive and Cardiorenal Profile, 30.1%) predominantly affected older children (78%) with hypertension (54.4%), renal dysfunction (creatinine 45.8 μmol/L), and ventricular tachycardia (53.8%). This cluster showed the lowest in-hospital mortality (2.5%) but frequent 7-14 day hospitalizations (35.8%) and the highest beta-blocker use (54.5%). Cluster 2 (Preterm and CHD-Associated HF, 43.4%) comprised preterm infants (71.4%) with congenital heart disease (72.2%) and preserved LVEF (67%), demonstrating the highest mortality (5.1%) and prolonged stays (>30 days: 10.6%) with predominant diuretic (40.6%) and antibiotic use (54.3%). Cluster 3 (Fulminant Myocarditis Profile, 26.5%) exhibited cardiogenic shock with severely reduced LVEF (33%) and elevated BNP (3234 pg/mL), showing bimodal outcomes (4.8% LOS < 3 days vs. 32.2% LOS 15-30 days) and the highest IVIG utilization (46.5%) with intermediate mortality (3.8%). The majority of between-group differences were statistically significant (<i>p</i> < 0.001). <b>Conclusions</b>: Machine learning identified three PHF phenotypes with distinct in-hospital risk profiles and therapeutic implications, challenging current classification systems. These findings highlight the potential for phenotype-specific management strategies and provide a rationale for future research into arrhythmia prevention in hypertensive profiles and early immunomodulation in fulminant myocarditis, while highlighting the need for specialized care pathways for preterm/CHD patients. Prospective validation is warranted to translate this framework into clinical practice.
Authors
- Muhammad Junaid Akram (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3977-1411)
- Yuxing Yuan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2048-6186)
- Lingjuan Liu
- Jinpeng Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8668-1315)
- Jie Tian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9006-6710)
- Haixin Huang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0335-4309)
- Bo Pan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8448-6268)
- Asad Nawaz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7786-4939)
Institutions
- Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University (CN)
- Chongqing Municipal Health Commission (CN)
- Chongqing Medical University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Diagnostics
- Published
- 2025-11-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics15222893
- Primary Topic
- Heart Failure Treatment and Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00