Global, regional and national burden of fire, heat, and hot substances in children and adolescents: Analysis of the 2021 global burden of disease study and projections for 2040

Fire, heat, and hot substances remain major public health issues facing the world, but there is limited data on the prevalence trends and disease burden of fire, heat, and hot substances among children and adolescents. We used global burden of disease (GBD) data to assess the overall burden trends of fire, heat, and hot substances in children and adolescents under 20 years of age globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021, and investigated the risk factors for disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) related to fire, heat, and hot substances. We also predicted the burden trends until 2040. This study used the data from the 2021 global burden of disease. We evaluated this number for age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change. The trend is stratified by region, country, age, gender, and social demographic index (SDI). Analyses included the slope index of inequality and concentration index to measure health inequalities, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict future disease burden trends. In 2021, the number of fire, heat, and hot substances cases among children and adolescents worldwide reached 38,32,150.05, a decrease of 21.47% from 1990. During this period, the ASIR decreased from 216.26 to 143.70, while the ASDR decreased from 251.93 to 105.65. The ASMR decreased from 2.62 to 1.09. The ASIR was highest in high SDI areas. The ASDR and ASMR were highest in low SDI areas. Frontier analysis showed that from 1990 to 2021, the absolute health inequality of the burden of fire, heat, and hot substances among children and adolescents decreased, but the relative inequality increased. High alcohol use and occupational risk use remain important risk factors for DALYs among people aged 15 to 19 years. By 2040, the global ASIR is expected to decrease to 77.79, and the ASDR and ASMR are expected to decrease to 46.35 and 0.48.