A causal order analysis of union membership and Labour Party proximity in the UK

Through a longitudinal analysis of a sample of 1053 individuals aged 20–65, followed from 2010 to 2022 (data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study), this article examines the causal order between union membership and proximity to the Labour Party in the UK, combining sequence analysis and multivariate analysis. It is a case of reciprocal causality. The states/events considered, related to union membership and proximity to the Labour Party, are subject to variability over time, which is greater for the latter.