Variability and trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in Bure Zuria District, Northwestern Ethiopia

Climate change is one of the foremost hurdles confronting the globe in the 21st century, primarily driven by human activities.. This study aimed to analyze the variability and trend of temperature and rainfall in the Bure Zuria district of northwestern Ethiopia over the period from 1983-2024. To examine the change in rainfall and temperature in Bure Zuria district, coefficients of variation (CV), standard anomaly index (SRA) and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were employed using daily precipitation and temperature data obtained from the national meteorological agency of Ethiopia for the period 1983–2024. Additionally, the time series trends were assessed by using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. Higher rainfall variability was found in the belg rainfalls than the kiremt and annual totals. Annual rainfall showed insignificant increasing trend at a rate of 1.3mm per year. Similarly, the kiremt and belg rainfall also exhibited insignificant increasing trend at a rate of 2.78 and 1.66mm per year. The mean annual minimum temperature presented a higher variability (CV = 8.5%) than that of the mean annual maximum (CV = 4.2%) and annual mean temperature (CV = 4.1%). Moreover, the Mann-Kendall trend test results for annual mean, minimum, and maximum temperature indicate the existence of a significant warming trend at a rate of 0.033°C, 0.043°C and 0.022°C per year, respectively over the study area at p < 0.05. The results provide crucial empirical evidence to inform policy and adaptation strategies. The study recommends using improved crop varieties, adjusting planting dates, soil and water conservation, afforestation and reforestation practices to mitigate and adapt the existing climate variability and change in the study area. We also recommend future studies to magnify the temporal and geographical scale that includes the entire northwestern region. Studies on the local impact of climate change also need further studies in the area.