Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Perceived Intergenerational Mobility in Czechia and Uruguay. An Unexpected Event During Survey Design Study

Can large-scale geopolitical shocks causally reshape how individuals perceive their intergenerational mobility? We address this question by examining the immediate impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on mobility perceptions using a quasi-experimental design. Leveraging World Values Survey data collected in Czechia and Uruguay during the invasion, we implement a regression discontinuity design that compares respondents interviewed immediately before and after February 24, 2022. This unexpected event during survey design approach addresses key limitations of correlational studies by exploiting quasi-random variation in exposure to the shock. Across multiple specifications -- including bandwidth sensitivity analyses, logit models, demographic controls, and robust bias-corrected estimates -- we find consistent null effects. The invasion produced no discernible immediate impact on either upward or downward mobility perceptions in either country, despite Czechia's geographic proximity and historical ties to the region. These findings complement prior correlational evidence showing associations between war concerns and mobility beliefs one year after the invasion, suggesting that such effects may unfold gradually rather than instantaneously, or that correlational patterns reflect selection into worry rather than immediate causal impacts. Our study demonstrates the value of combining multiple methods and measures when studying how geopolitical crises shape social perceptions.