Dual impact of digitalization on the carbon emissions of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations in China: A spatiotemporal perspective

Digital transformation, as a recent trend in socioeconomic development, is considered as a critical pathway for urban carbon reduction because of its potential to increase productivity and energy efficiency. However, few studies have explored the relationship between urban digitalization and carbon emissions (CE). Therefore, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and interaction mechanism between digitalization and CE in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations of China during 2006–2020 based on a multidimensional indicator system, including digitalization industry level, digitalization application level, and urban green digitalization willingness. The findings revealed that both digitalization and CE in the YRD exhibit a significant and synchronously evolving “core-periphery” spatial pattern. Core cities generated substantial positive spillover effect on periphery cities through technology diffusion and policy demonstration, advancing both regional digitalization and the collaborative governance of CE. However, digitalization had dual impact on CE. On the one hand, it promoted the reduction of CE by enhancing energy efficiency, optimizing industrial structures, and promoting the application of green technologies. On the other hand, the expansion of digital infrastructure introduced a potential risk of increased energy consumption. Therefore, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to facilitate the coordination of environmental sustainability and digitalization in the YRD. This study provides empirical support and policy insights for advancing the coordinated development of regional digital transformation and green low-carbon initiatives.