A stitch in time saves nine: a geopolitical risk assessment framework for transnational projects

Purpose This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for assessing geopolitical risks in transnational projects using the uncertainty measurement theory (UMT) and set-pair analysis (SPA). Design/methodology/approach The proposed framework integrates multiple analytical techniques, including the construction of an indicator system, data preprocessing, an enhanced G1 method and the entropy weighting method to determine combined weights. UMT is employed to derive a comprehensive measurement and assessment vector, while SPA is used to classify risk levels. Findings This study applies the framework to four key projects: the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the China Railway Express (CR Express), the Mombasa Port and the Hambantota Port. The findings reveal that social factors and external interventions are the primary risk determinants. The risk level of CPEC is classified as III (moderate), Hambantota Port as III (moderate), Mombasa Port as III (moderate) and CR Express as low, aligning with real-world conditions. Practical implications The proposed framework provides a scientific method for assessing project safety, enabling cross-border projects to identify risks, optimize strategic planning and ensure steady progress. Originality/value The framework integrates multiple analytical techniques: it constructs an indicator system and uses an enhanced G1 method and the entropy weighting method to determine combined weights. UMT derives a comprehensive measurement and assessment vector, while SPA classifies risk levels.