Integrating farmers’ perceptions and empirical climate data to assess agricultural productivity and food security in coastal Bangladesh

Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to various impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, unpredictable precipitation, cyclones, droughts, and saltwater intrusion. These factors collectively threaten agricultural productivity and food security. This study examines the relationship between farmers’ perceptions and observable climatic trends, with a focus on the sustainability of food systems and the promotion of adaptable farming techniques in Bagerhat District, Bangladesh. A mixed-methods strategy was employed, incorporating household surveys (a total of 110 purposively selected farmers), focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and climatic data analysis. The Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, precipitation concentration index (PCI), and standardized rainfall anomaly index (SRAI) were employed to analyze climate trends from 1991 to 2020. The findings showed that more than 70.00% of respondents indicated that summers were becoming warmer, over 50.00% reported that winters were becoming colder, and 63.00% stated that yearly precipitation was decreasing. Farmers reported an increase in flood occurrences and a decline in the predictability of precipitation. Between 2011 and 2019, the output of most rice varieties decreased, with the exception of high-yielding Aman rice and hybrid Boro rice. The results also showed that 60.00% of respondents reported experiencing salinity intrusion, and 57.00% attributed significant yield losses to salinity. Planting salt-tolerant rice varieties (such as BRRI Dhan 67 and Binadhan-10), practicing homestead vegetable cultivation, and moderately integrating shrimp aquaculture were also common adaptive measures. To improve long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh, we suggest growing more salt-tolerant crop varieties, promoting vertical and homestead gardening, enhancing seed systems that are resilient to climate change, and educating farmers on the use of climate-smart farming methods. This study highlights the importance of aligning farmers’ perceptions with observed climatic data to design effective adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can guide policy-makers and development practitioners in strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and ensuring long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh.