The Adoption of Telework in Organizations and Its Effects on the Colombian Energy System and CO2 Emissions

The adoption of telework increased as a sustainable strategy after the COVID-19 pandemic. However, its impact on transportation and energy consumption are controversial, emphasizing the need for context-specific analysis. This research developed a System Dynamics (SD) simulation that integrated the generalized Bass Diffusion Model (BDM) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to analyze telework diffusion in organizations and its influence on transport-related CO2 emissions and energy consumption in Colombia. Internal conditions, particularly managerial attitudes and perceptions of telework performance, play a crucial role in the adoption rate. Telework adoption follows a weak S-curve pattern primarily driven by internal dynamics rather than external pressures, lagging behind the projections set by public policies and global trends. Simulations based on government data for the period 2012–2022 indicated that the number of teleworkers could reach 1.61 million by 2032, resulting in annual energy savings of approximately 1.5% and a 2% reduction in transport-related CO2 emissions. Sustained governmental tracking of sectoral adoption and including records of household energy use will support sensitivity analysis and strengthen model robustness. The integrated SD, TAM, and BDM modeling approach identified critical factors to boost telework adoption and its environmental benefits, providing insights for sustainable organizational strategies and public policies.