Closing the Loop: How Regenerative Robust Gasification Enhances Recycling and Supply Chain Resilience

Municipal solid waste (MSW) recycling is constrained by contamination, heterogeneity, and infrastructure built around material-specific pathways. We introduce effectiveness-normalized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a system-level metric that adjusts reported process burdens by feedstock eligibility (Effectiveness Fraction, EF) and carbon recovery efficiency (CRE) to reflect real-world MSW conditions. Using published LCA data and engineering estimates, we benchmark six pathways, mechanical recycling, PET depolymerization, enzymatic depolymerization, pyrolysis, supercritical water gasification (SCWG), and Regenerative Robust Gasification (RRG), at the scale of mixed MSW. Normalizing for EF and CRE reveals large differences between process-level and system-level performance. Mechanical recycling and PET depolymerization show low process intensities yet high normalized impacts because they can treat only a small share of plastics in MSW. SCWG performs well at broader eligibility. RRG, a plasma-assisted molten-bath approach integrated with methanol synthesis, maintains the lowest normalized impact (~1.6 t CO2e per ton of recycled polymer) while accepting virtually all organics in MSW and vitrifying inorganics. Modeled methanol yields are ~200–300 gal·t−1 without external hydrogen and up to ~800 gal·t−1 with renewable methane reforming. The metric clarifies trade-offs for policy and investment by rewarding technologies that maximize diversion and carbon retention. We discuss how effectiveness-normalized results can be incorporated into LCA practice and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) frameworks and outline research needs in techno-economics, regional scalability, hydrogen sourcing, and uncertainty analysis. Findings support aligning infrastructure and procurement with robust, scalable routes that deliver circular manufacturing from heterogeneous MSW.