The effect of mass shootings on voter turnout in the United States

Mass shootings occur with horrifying frequency in the United States. Many point to electoral politics as a potential path to change this. Here, we test whether mass shootings increase electoral participation using the most granular dataset to date. We draw information on mass shootings from the Gun Violence Archive and estimate national block group-level turnout using four snapshots of the national voter file. Using a regression discontinuity in time design, we find that mass shootings mobilize local voters (especially in heavily Democratic areas) but do not shift presidential vote choices. Furthermore, we show that pre-election mass shootings were associated with increased support for a 2016 Californian gun reform ballot initiative. Our results show the (geographically bounded) salience of mass shootings for local political engagement and ballot reform efforts.