Ecology and spread of the North American H5N1 epizootic

Since late 2021, a panzootic of highly pathogenic H5N1 has devastated wild birds, agriculture and mammals. Here an analysis of 1,818 haemagglutinin sequences from wild birds, domestic birds and mammals reveals that the North American panzootic was driven by around nine introductions into the Atlantic and Pacific flyways, followed by rapid dissemination through wild, migratory birds. Transmission was primarily driven by Anseriformes, while non-canonical species acted as dead-end hosts. In contrast to the epizootic of 2015 (refs. ^1,2), outbreaks in domestic birds were driven by around 46-113 independent introductions from wild birds that persisted for up to 6 months. Backyard birds were infected around 9 days earlier on average than commercial poultry, suggesting potential as early-warning signals for transmission upticks. We pinpoint wild birds as critical drivers of the epizootic, implying that enhanced surveillance in wild birds and strategies that reduce transmission at the wild-agriculture interface will be key for future tracking and outbreak prevention.