Balancing Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Through Forest Management Choices—A Case Study from Hungary

Climate change is driving the need for forest management strategies that simultaneously enhance ecosystem resilience and contribute to climate change mitigation. Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs), regulated in the European Union by the Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), offer potential financial incentives for such management, but eligibility criteria—particularly biodiversity requirements—limit the applicability of certain species. This study assessed the ecological and economic outcomes of six alternative management scenarios for a 4.7 ha, 99-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) stand in western Hungary, comparing them against a business-as-usual (BAU) regeneration baseline. Using field inventory data, species-specific yield tables, and the Forest Industry Carbon Model, we modelled living and dead biomass carbon stocks for 2025–2050 and calculated potential CO2 credit generation. Economic evaluation employed total discounted contribution margin (TDCM) analyses under varying carbon credit prices (€0–150/tCO2). Results showed that an extended rotation yielded the highest carbon sequestration (958 tCO2 above BAU) and TDCM but was deemed operationally unfeasible due to declining stand health. Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) regeneration provided high mitigation potential (690 tCO2) but was ineligible under CRCF rules. Grey poplar (Populus × canescens) regeneration emerged as the most viable option, balancing biodiversity compliance, climate adaptability, and economic return (TDCM = EUR 22,900 at €50/tCO2). The findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological suitability, market regulations, and economic performance in planning carbon farming projects, and highlight that regulatory biodiversity safeguards can significantly shape feasible mitigation pathways.