Exacerbating landslide risks under future climate change and land use scenarios: evidence from the Western Himalayas in Pakistan

Landslides are exacerbating in the climate-sensitive Western Himalayas, threatening populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems. This study develops a dynamic risk assessment framework using static stressors and dynamic drivers, including climate projections from CMIP6, land use forecasts via CA-Markov, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). Landslide susceptibility was modeled using an integrated Frequency Ratio–Analytic Hierarchy Process approach, validated through ROC analysis and Seed Cell Area Index. Population exposure used gridded SSP datasets, while vulnerability was assessed using the static Global Relative Deprivation Index due to limited future socioeconomic data. Results show extreme precipitation dominates the risk at high elevations, while land-use change intensifies in peri-urban corridors. Landslide risk areas are projected to expand under all SSPs, with a significant increase from 5.34% in 2020 to 9.04% by 2060 under SSP2−4.5, a relative change of 69.3%. Hotspot transition analysis reveals that moderate-risk zones in 2020 will evolve into high-risk areas by 2060, mainly near expanding infrastructure on steep slopes. ~61% population resides in vulnerable zones, highlighting the urgency for targeted adaptation. The framework offers insights into slope zoning, early warning systems, and resilient infrastructure, supporting the UNDRR's ‘Early Warning for All’ initiative and IPCC adaptation goals.