Wave Energy Conversion to Decarbonize Offshore Aquaculture: Multi-Level Techno-Economic Analysis for a Case Study in Peniche, Portugal

By 2050, global population growth will lead to a significant increase in demand for animal-based products, including seafood. Aquaculture is a key solution to meet these needs while reducing pressure on wild aquatic stocks. However, its environmental footprint and energy demand remain open concerns. This study explores the co-location of offshore aquaculture with a wave energy converter—WaveRoller—as a renewable power source. Using a 44-year dataset from the Portuguese coast near Peniche, the analysis evaluates the survivability and operation of the WaveRoller, long-term percentile trends, seasonal energy production, extrapolated extreme events using probabilistic modeling, and confidence intervals for energy costs. A scenario-based range of energy demand is constructed from a baseline blue mussel production of over 400 tons/yr. The K-Means clustering method is applied to reduce data size while maintaining its representativeness. Results show that a 600 kW WaveRoller is similarly suited to operational wave conditions compared to a 1000 kW device, though it excels when aquaculture energy demand peaks in Summertime. The probability that a single WaveRoller fails to meet annual aquaculture energy needs is nearly zero, though, during Summer, it can become statistically significant. The opposite is verified on survivability during Winter, under harsher wave conditions. The Levelized Cost of Energy is calculated for different expenditure scenarios, with minimum values slightly under 200 EUR/MWh being reported only under ideal conditions. Future work should include climate change scenarios and life cycle assessments to better evaluate environmental impacts and techno-economic viability.