Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments

Abstract. Climate change metrics result from analytical simplification of complex and diverse climate models that are generally not deeply investigated by Life Cycle Assessment communities. We investigated the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to properly gather updated metric equations, climate parameters and associated uncertainties. Metrics are mainly designed with a single gas pulse emission at t0 whereas multi-gas and multi-time pulse emissions are mostly encountered in LCA modelling. Therefore, common static and relative metrics might not suit dynamic climate change assessments (dCCA) that differentiate pulse timing and gas contributions over time. This study focuses on absolute and dynamic metrics – cumulative radiative forcing (AGWP or ΔF) and global temperature change (AGTP or ΔT) – applied to well-mixed greenhouse gases. Cumulative radiative forcing assessment at 20, 100, 500 years appears sufficient. Global temperature change metrics have some advantages that offset their higher uncertainties. (1) Degree Celsius unit better suits peak warming targets. (2) Positive and negative peaks, as well as long-term temperature change, partly alleviate the time horizon decision issue while assessing product systems. (3) Graphical representations are comparable to simultaneously depict short- and long-lived climate forcers. In future assessment reports, IPCC is invited to recall climate equations and updated parameters values in a pedagogical way and to adopt peak and long-term temperature change metrics. dCCA recommendations are to plot ΔF and ΔT temporal profiles of product systems up to 600 years and use suggested metrics. This should enable going towards climate neutrality with more clarity, transparency and understanding.