Assaying Western Support for Ukraine in the War Against Russia, 2022–2025: Poland and the Rest

Abstract Measuring levels of political, financial, military, and humanitarian support for Ukraine has been an unescapable subject since Russia carried out a full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022. Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 added a new inflection point to the war including his efforts to end it. European states’ capacities to lend such support have been offset by individual countries’ resources including chances of falling into recession. With the passage of time, European publics are skeptical whether support for Ukraine should continue. The rhetoric of their political elites, by contrast, appears to ignore their uncertainties. Comparing levels of support by political elites and public attitudes is important in both theory and practice. Traditional representative government in the political West may produce anti-democratic politics. Relying on data from February 2022 to mid-summer 2025 allows us to explore how the elite-versus-public framework has oscillated. A case study of Poland focusing on its assistance for Ukraine raises additional historic questions about World War II history, its ethics, the role of state power, and personal disputes between Polish and Ukrainian leaders. The overarching question remains whether politicization separating high office holders from public attitudes holds sway in Ukraine’s war against Russia.