Global Carbon Budget 2025

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2024, EFOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC/yr), ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2024, GATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr−1, leaving a large negative BIM (−1.7 GtC yr−1), suggesting that the total sink or GATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.1 % (0.2 % to 2.2 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing by 2.3 ppm reaching 425.7 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

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Published
2025-11-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-659
Citations
9
Primary Topic
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
9.95

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article

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Xu Yue, Nathan Collier, Frédéric Chevallier, Kirsty Harrington et al.
9 citations
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
9.95
article

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Xu Yue, Nathan Collier, Frédéric Chevallier, Kirsty Harrington, Carla F. Berghoff, Tobias Nützel, Tereza Jarníková, Kjetil Schanke, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Naveen Chandra, Are Olsen, A. R. Jacobson, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Adrienne J. Sutton, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Feely, Roland Séférian, Margot Cronin, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Ingunn Skjelvan, Peter Anthoni, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Ian A. Harris, Michael P. Erb, Galen A. McKinley, Alizée Roobaert, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, Corinne Le Quéré, Naiqing Pan, Jörg Schwinger, Colm Sweeney, Pierre Regnier, Jiye Zeng, GEORGE C. HURTT, Shin‐Ichiro Nakaoka, Nicolas Gruber, Zhangcai Qin, Yosuke Iida, Thomas Colligan, Laique Djeutchouang, Marion Gehlen, Atul K. Jain, Shintaro Takao, Abdirahman M Omar, Tatiana Ilyina, Patrick McGuire, Glen P. Peters, Sebastiaan van de Velde, Nicholas R. Bates, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Nicolas Bellouin, Hiroaki Tatebe, Didier Swingedouw, Denis Pierrot, Laure Resplandy, Lorna R. Nayagam, Erwan Monier, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jens Heinke, Hongmei Li, Robbie M. Andrew, Jürgen Knauer, Christian Rödenbeck, Julia Pongratz, Josep G. Canadell, Michael O’Sullivan, Joe R. Melton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Özgür Gürses, Rik Wanninkhof, David R. Munro, Gregor Rehder, Lei Ma, Claire Lo Monaco, Fei Jiang, Thomas Gasser, Adrianna Foster, Stephen A. Sitch, Clemens Schwingshackl, Xinyu Dou, Xin Lan, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Matthew W. Jones, Wenping Yuan, Matt P. Enright, Philippe Ciais, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Bertrand Guenet, Wouter Peters, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Raffaele Bernardello, Bronte Tilbrook, Zhu Liu, Charles D. Koven, Jens Daniel Müller, Ralph F. Keeling, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Filippa Fransner, Laurent Bopp, Yosuke Niwa, S. D. M. Jones, Simone R. Alin, Anthony P. Walker, T. Luke Smallman, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Leticia Barbero, Natalie Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Etsushi Kato, Thais M. Rosan, Annika Jersild, Louise Chini, Taro Kunimitsu, Dorothée C. E. Bakker, Daniel J. Ford, Peter Landschützer, Sudhanshu Pandey, Xiangjun Tian, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Xiao‐Juan Yang, Hanqin Tian, Liang Feng, Akihiko Ito, Qing Sun, Yawen Kong, Gregg Marland, Victoria Spada
article en
9 citations

Abstract

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2024, EFOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC/yr), ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2024, GATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr−1, leaving a large negative BIM (−1.7 GtC yr−1), suggesting that the total sink or GATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.1 % (0.2 % to 2.2 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing by 2.3 ppm reaching 425.7 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE), Boston College (US), NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), University of East Anglia (GB), University of Technology Sydney (AU), University of Bern (CH), California Institute of Technology (US), Udayana University (ID), Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US), Flanders Marine Institute (BE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Tasmania (AU), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH), Statistics New Zealand (NZ), Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BM), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (IT), Australian Antarctic Division (AU), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), China Meteorological Administration (CN), University of Alaska Fairbanks (US), École Polytechnique (FR), University of Miami (US), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), Université de Bordeaux (FR), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Universität Hamburg (DE), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), University of Groningen (NL), University of Bremen (DE), Urbana University (US), Utrecht University (NL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (CN), Princeton University (US), Peking University (CN), University of Exeter (GB), Stellenbosch University (ZA), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (US), Norwich Research Park (GB), Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (DE), Japan Meteorological Agency (JP), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (US), École Normale Supérieure - PSL (FR), ETH Zurich (CH), University of California San Diego (US), Sorbonne Université (FR), University of Oxford (GB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR), Tula Foundation (CA), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (FR), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (FR), Education New Zealand (NZ), NORCE Research AS (NO), CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO), Ministry of Education (ME), National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (IS), Joint Research Centre (IT), Swiss Data Science Center (CH), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth (CN), National Centre for Earth Observation (GB), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (US), Aerospace Information Research Institute (CN), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon (DE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (CN), Instituto Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo Pesquero (AR), Tyndall Centre (GB), Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (US), Institute of Applied Energy (JP), Carbon180 (US), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (FR), Marine Institute (IE), Laboratoire de Géologie de l’École Normale Supérieure (FR), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Appalachian State University (US), Meteorological Research Institute (JP), University of Bergen (NO), Arizona State University (US), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), University of Maryland, College Park (US), University of Reading (GB), The University of Tokyo (JP), Columbia University (US), University of Otago (NZ), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE), University of California, Davis (US), Nanjing University (CN), Wageningen University & Research (NL), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES), Stanford University (US), University of Edinburgh (GB), Tsinghua University (CN)
Tula Foundation, European Space Agency, European Commission, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Vlaamse regering, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, National Key Research and Development Program of China
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Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
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