A struggle to survive: Guild hierarchy predicts drought benefit among large carnivores

Climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts. While much is known about the effects of drought on herbivores, its impact on carnivore ecology and demography remains poorly understood. Drought may benefit large carnivores by increasing prey vulnerability but can also increase intra- and interspecific interactions and competition. We assessed how a severe drought influenced the diet, space use and reproduction of leopards and lions in South Africa's Sabi Sands Game Reserve, focussing on their contrasting ecology and dominance. Despite an increase in energetic gain, leopard reproductive success declined significantly during the drought, primarily due to increased vulnerability of cubs to intraguild predation. Lions also increased their net energetic gain during drought and, while they showed a marginal increase in cub survival, this was offset by a mange outbreak. These findings challenge the conventional assumption that drought universally benefits large carnivores. For leopards, a subordinate carnivore, the top-down pressures of competition and predation outweighed bottom-up benefits of prey vulnerability. Lions, the dominant competitor, benefitted from increased prey vulnerability and decreased intraspecific conflict but remained vulnerable to stochastic external factors. This underscores the complex interplay of environmental stress, predator interactions and reproductive success, with important implications for carnivore conservation under increasing drought frequency and severity in semi-arid systems.