Trade-Offs and Synergies and Ecosystem Service Bundles of Long-Term Ecosystem Services in Xiong’an New Area, China

Understanding interactions among ecosystem services (ESs) is vital for ecological conservation and governance. As a newly established national-level New Area in China, Xiong’an New Area holds significant ecological importance. This study first explores its long-term spatiotemporal changes in ESs using an “assessment-attribution-correlation-zoning” framework. Results show that net primary productivity (NPP) remained stable from 1990 to 2023; soil conservation (SC) and habitat quality (HQ) improved from 2018 to 2023; carbon storage (CS) declined significantly from 2010 to 2015; and water yield (WY) decreased continuously from 1990 to 2023. Rainfall was the key natural driver, while GDP and road network density were critical anthropogenic factors. Correlations among the five ESs weakened: synergies between soil conservation–water yield, soil conservation–carbon storage, soil conservation–habitat quality, water yield–carbon storage, and habitat quality–carbon storage diminished, and the water yield–habitat quality synergy turned into a trade-off. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in ESs. Carbon storage–habitat quality, carbon storage–soil conservation, habitat quality–soil conservation, net primary productivity–habitat quality, water yield–soil conservation, and net primary productivity–water yield showed low-low clustering; net primary productivity–carbon storage, net primary productivity–soil conservation, and water yield–habitat quality exhibited low-high clustering; and water yield–carbon storage showed high-high clustering. Finally, ESs were classified into six bundles via self-organizing maps, with the carbon–ecology maintenance bundle being the largest. These findings provide a basis for scientific ecosystem management and sustainable development in Xiong’an.