Unplanned Land Use in a Planned City: A Systematic Review of Elite Capture, Informal Expansion, and Governance Reform in Islamabad

Planned capitals across the Global South frequently experience unplanned land use transitions that contradict their founding visions. Despite six decades of planning and academic inquiry, Islamabad’s research remains fragmented. Environmental studies have documented land use and land cover changes through remote sensing, while governance-oriented analyses have highlighted institutional weaknesses and policy failures. However, these domains rarely intersect, and few studies systematically link spatial transformations with the underlying governance structures and political–economic processes that drive them. Consequently, the existing literature provides valuable but partial explanations for why Islamabad’s planned order unraveled. This study examines Islamabad, conceived in 1960 as a model of order and green balance, where the built-up area expanded by 377 km2 (from 88 to 465 km2; +426%) and forest cover declined by 83 km2 (−40%) between 1979 and 2019. Using a PRISMA-guided systematic review integrating spatial, governance, and policy data, we synthesized 39 peer-reviewed and gray literature sources to explain why Islamabad’s planned order unraveled. The findings reveal that governance fragmentation between the Capital Development Authority (CDA) and Metropolitan Corporation Islamabad (MCI), combined with elite capture and weak enforcement of the 2020–2040 Master Plan, has produced enduring contradictions between policy intent and urban reality. These conditions mirror those of other planned capitals, such as Brasília and Abuja. Grounded in Pakistan’s institutional context, the study proposes four actionable reforms: (1) regularization frameworks for informal settlements, (2) cross-agency spatial and fiscal coordination, (3) ecological thresholds within zoning by-laws, and (4) participatory master-plan reviews. Islamabad’s experience illustrates how planned capitals can evolve toward inclusive and ecologically resilient futures through governance reform and adaptive planning.