A niche-based framework for assessing invasion risks in related pest species with a case study

Invasive pests threaten agriculture, yet risks from related non-invasive species are understudied. We constructed a framework integrating species distribution models (biomod2), niche analysis, and multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) to assess the invasion risk of <i>Carpomya incompleta</i> into habitats of its congeneric quarantine pest, <i>C. vesuviana</i>. We identified <i>C. incompleta</i>'s environmentally host-coupled zones (EHCZs), dispersal simulation zones (DSZs), and synergistic hazard zones (SHZs) with <i>C. vesuviana</i>, and quantified niche overlaps between <i>C. incompleta</i>'s DSZs and its potential habitats, plus between DSZs and <i>C. vesuviana</i>'s habitats under future climate scenarios. Results confirmed significant niche consistency between <i>C. incompleta</i>'s DSZs and its potential distribution (Schoener's D = 0.66). High niche overlap existed between both species (D = 0.62), persisting under SSP585 (D = 0.663). The framework effectively captures <i>C. incompleta</i>'s ecological requirements, confirming its high, climate-persistent invasion risk into <i>C. vesuviana</i>'s habitats, providing a predictive tool for early warning and biosecurity planning.