Projections of cultivation area for summer Kimchi cabbage in South Korea under different global warming levels

Climate change affects regional climate patterns, directly impacting agriculture. Therefore, traditional cultivation areas may become less suitable for crop growth. This study investigates the changes in the cultivation areas of summer Kimchi cabbage in South Korea under global warming levels (GWLs) using high-resolution (1 km) simulations. The cultivation areas of summer Kimchi cabbage have been classified into three categories (suitable, possible, and unsuitable) based on climate indices (growth and heading temperatures). Analysis of present-day (2000 2019) data confirms that growth temperature is a key factor in determining suitability for summer Kimchi cabbage cultivation. The estimated suitable and possible areas for summer Kimchi cabbage in South Korea represent approximately 11.5% and 26.2% of present-day land area, respectively. The suitable (possible) area of cultivation decreases by approximately 46.9%(39.8%) and 70.7%(57.2%), respectively, under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C GWL compared to present-day. The result of this analysis indicates that suitable cultivation areas are more sensitive to the impacts of global warming than possible areas. Also, both suitable and possible cultivation areas are projected to decrease most significantly under the 2.0°C GWL. This means that limiting GWL to 2.0°C could be helpful for maintenance of continuous cultivation areas compared to other GWLs. Our findings will help support adaptation strategies for sustainable agriculture.