Evaluating sectoral contributions to carbon neutrality at the urban and regional levels: Focusing on on-track and off-track pathways

Following enactment of Korea’s Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth (2021), all local governments established plans for carbon neutrality and green growth (master plans), in line with the national goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. This study evaluates sectoral contributions to local carbon neutrality across 205 basic local governments by examining on-track and off-track pathways relative to linear emission reduction trajectory from 2018 to 2050. Using binary logistic regression, the impact of emission changes relative to baseline (2018) in the building, road transport, waste, and LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) sectors on the likelihood of remaining on track was estimated. The results reveal a nationwide decline in the proportion of municipalities on-track to the carbon neutrality pathway over time. Except for the building sector, emission changes relative to 2018 in all other sectors significantly influenced the likelihood of on-track and off-track pathways, with LULUCF exerting the largest impact, followed by transport and waste. Based on these findings, this study proposes incorporating a pathway-based performance evaluation mechanism into the government’s official guidelines. Such an approach would enable both ex-post and ex-ante evaluation of local strategies, supporting more adaptive and coordinated implementation of carbon neutral policies at the local level.