Proper Scoring Rules for Estimation and Forecast Evaluation

Proper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules, including general characterization results and important families of scoring rules. We discuss their role in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation. Furthermore, we comment on interesting developments of their usage in applications.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application
Published
2025-11-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-050626
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.11
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Proper Scoring Rules for Estimation and Forecast Evaluation

Kamlesh A. Waghmare, Johanna F. Ziegel
1 citations
Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
2.11
article

Proper Scoring Rules for Estimation and Forecast Evaluation

Kamlesh A. Waghmare, Johanna F. Ziegel
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Proper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules, including general characterization results and important families of scoring rules. We discuss their role in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation. Furthermore, we comment on interesting developments of their usage in applications.

Annual Review of Statistics and Its ApplicationVol. 13(1)
ETH Zurich (CH)
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
2.11
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.