Dynamic modelling of circular economic implementation towards sustainable coffee agroforestry in Indonesia

Coffee is a high-value agricultural commodity that plays a vital role in supporting rural development in Indonesia. Despite its socio-economic importance, conventional coffee cultivation practices continue to face persistent sustainability challenges, particularly due to limited value addition at the farm level and the inefficient utilization of organic waste generated throughout the production process. This study aims to develop a system dynamics model to support sustainable coffee-based agroforestry within a circular economy framework. Two circular economy scenarios of coffee waste were evaluated: converting coffee waste into organic fertilizer and- its application to the coffee plantation (Scenario 1), and utilizing coffee waste as cattle feed-and its cow dung application into coffee plantation (Scenario 2). The model was constructed, incorporating Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFDs). Simulation results indicate a significant economic disparity between farmers and processors, with a profit ratio of 1:2.71, as well as a rising accumulation of organic waste. Both scenarios demonstrated the potential to reduce emissions, improve resource efficiency, and enhance overall economic value. The model was validated using actual field data and offers a practical decision-support tool for designing inclusive and sustainable coffee agro-industry systems.