Economic development, air conditioning and adaptation to warming

Abstract Rising global temperatures increase the potential for heat-related adverse impacts, while economic growth, by enabling greater adoption of air conditioning, can help reduce them. This makes it unclear in which countries the net effect will lead to a worsening or easing of these potential impacts as the climate and economies change. We define a Cooling Deficit Index as the product of cooling degree days and the fraction of the population without air conditioning to indicate the extent to which high temperatures are experienced without access to cooling. We used this index to investigate the relationship between global warming, economic growth, and the fraction of population exposed to high temperatures without the benefits of air conditioning. We find that populations in lower-income countries tend to experience the greatest number of high-temperature days without access to cooling and are likely to face the largest increases in such days as global temperatures rise. These countries would require GDP growth rates that exceed historical rates to avoid increasing numbers of days with high temperatures experienced without air conditioning. Reducing or reversing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing economic growth, and lowering the cost of cooling technologies could all contribute to decreasing the number of days with high temperatures experienced without air conditioning, particularly in low-income countries.