Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW): Curse or Blessing for AfD in the State Elections?

The 2024 state elections in eastern Germany became a focal point of debate, not only because of the AfD's strong performances. These elections witnessed the debut of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in German state politics. Research suggests that the left-conservative and populist stance of this new party could affect the AfD's voter base, potentially attracting significant support, particularly in eastern Germany. This study investigates the impact of the BSW on the AfD in the 2024 state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg. It aims to determine whether and how the Sahra Wagenknecht-led alliance affects the AfD's electorate. By leveraging GLES survey data, which includes oversampling for the eastern German state elections, the study examines the direct competition between AfD and BSW. We assess whether the factors that previously motivated AfD voters are now also driving support for BSW – or whether BSW is attracting these voters for different reasons. Furthermore, the study uses the popular German voting advice application Wahl-O-Mat to analyse the programmatic alignment between BSW, AfD, and other parties. This analysis aims to provide a thorough understanding of the dynamics introduced by new political players and their influence on AfD's prospects in the eastern German state elections.<br/><br/>