Exploring influential factors on settlement intentions of the floating population in the Bangkok metropolitan region: A contextual analysis of spatial variation

Over 50% of Thailand's floating population is located inside the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). Its growth presents a significant challenge to public budget planning due to the uncertainty associated with individuals residing outside civil registration vital statistics (CRVS). This study aims to identify the determinants influencing long term residence intention used as a proxy of the settlement intentions among the floating population in Bangkok and its surrounding metropolitan provinces within the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), namely Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Nakhon Pathom, and Samut Sakhon. This study employed data from the Internal Migration Survey (2020–2022), conducted by Thailand’s National Statistical Office. The sample comprised 2,125 individuals aged 15 and above who were residing in BMR without local registration officially. A two-stage analytical approach: the bivariate analyses using chi-square tests, and a full logistic regression model was employed. The results indicate that there is a difference in long-term residence intention between floating population in Bangkok and the surrounding provinces. Six variables show statistically significant effects: gender, educational level, origin place, income, residence duration and destination (metropolitan core vs. surrounding provinces). An interaction between education and destination also merged significant. Highly educated migrants prefer urban centers over the surrounding provinces compared to their counterparts. This suggests that the city center provides better job opportunities for skill talent, while peripheral areas lag behind. These findings highlight the importance of integrating human capital and spatial dynamics in urban policy design to ensure equitable settlement outcomes.