MaxEnt distribution modelling of Betula utilis D.Don under changing climatic conditions in North Western Himalaya, India

Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity, especially to native and endemic species, due to their limited adaptability. Betula utilis, a threatened multipurpose tree species of the Himalaya, is vulnerable to these climatic conditions. The present study aimed to assess the current and future potential habitat suitability of B. utilis to understand its possible distribution shift and conservation needs. MaxEnt distribution modelling was carried out using 71 spatially thinned occurrence points and four environmental variables out of 27 after testing for multicollinearity. Future distributions were projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios using three Global Circulation Models for the period 2081–2100. The model evaluation matrices, including the True Skill Statistic, Kappa statistics and Area Under Curve, indicate high predictive accuracy. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter was identified as the most influential variable determining the distribution of B. utilis. Currently, 2,651 km2 and 2,691 km2 areas were predicted as very high and highly suitable, respectively. Under future climatic conditions, the range of the species distribution is expected to expand and shift toward high altitudes and the north-east, indicating habitat suitability and low extension risk. The study provides a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on B. utilis and offers valuable insights for its future conservation and management in the north-western Himalaya.