Spatiotemporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of the “Three Modernizations” Integrated Development in China’s Oil and Gas Industry

Against the backdrop of China’s “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” goals, as well as the advancement of new industrialization, the oil and gas industry is undergoing a critical transformation from resource-dependent growth toward innovation-driven, low-carbon, and high-quality development. The integrated advancement of high-end, intelligent, and green transformation—collectively referred to as the “Three Modernizations”—has become a vital pathway for promoting industrial upgrading and sustainable growth. Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2009 to 2023, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system covering 19 secondary indicators across three dimensions: high-end, intelligent, and green development. Using the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, and σ–β convergence models, the study examines the spatiotemporal evolution, regional disparities, and convergence characteristics of HIG integration, and further explores its driving mechanisms through a two-way fixed effects model and mediation effect analysis. The results show that (1) the overall HIG integration index rose from 0.34 in 2009 to 0.46 in 2023, forming a spatial pattern of “high in the east, low in the west, stable in the center, and fluctuating in the northeast”; (2) regional disparities narrowed significantly, with the Gini coefficient declining from 0.093 to 0.058 and σ decreasing from 7.114 to 6.350; and (3) oil and gas resource endowment, policy support, technological innovation, and carbon emission constraints all positively promote integration, with regression coefficients of 0.152, 0.349, 0.263, and 0.118, respectively. Heterogeneity analysis reveals an increasing integration level from upstream to downstream, with eastern regions leading in innovation-driven development. Based on these findings, the study recommends strengthening policy and institutional support, accelerating technological innovation, improving intelligent infrastructure, deepening green and low-carbon transformation, promoting regional coordination, and establishing a long-term monitoring mechanism to advance the integrated high-quality development of China’s oil and gas industry. Overall, this study deepens the understanding of the internal logic and spatial dynamics of the “Three Modernizations” integration in China’s oil and gas industry, providing empirical evidence and policy insights for accelerating the construction of a low-carbon, secure, and efficient modern energy system.