Peanut Yield Gap Closure Is a Potential Option to Improve Edible Oil Security in China

ABSTRACT China's self‐sufficiency rate (SSR) for edible oil stands at 29%, which is mainly due to a low soybean SSR of 15% with substantial imports. Peanut, one of the major oil crops in China, has been self‐sufficient since the 1960s and holds potential for enhancing the country's edible oil security if its production can be further increased. However, the potential for production increase remains largely unknown. In this study, we evaluated regional and national peanut yield gaps using a well‐calibrated crop model with site‐specific weather, soil, and management data through a “bottom‐up” upscaling method following Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) methodology. We further assessed the SSR for edible oil under various future scenarios and identified priority provinces for peanut planting compared with soybean by cumulative frequency distribution classification. The results showed that the relative yield gap (Yg) of peanut in China was still large (53%), and national production could increase by 71% through Yg closure, with the regions of North China Plain and the Yangtze River Valley contributing to the largest proportion of 43% and 31% to the total production increase, respectively. Edible oil SSR is projected to increase by 11 percentage points in the next decade (2032) through peanut Yg closure, which is equivalent to a 24% decrease in current soybean imports in China. In addition, priority provinces for peanut growing with large Yg and high stability of potential yield were identified compared with soybean, such as Shandong, Sichuan, and Jiangsu, which have the potential to increase edible oil SSR by another 3 percentage points. Moreover, yield‐limiting factors and yield increase approaches in specific regions were discussed for increasing peanut production in a more sustainable manner.