Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget

Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit<sup>1,2</sup>. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers<sup>1</sup>. Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards<sup>1</sup>. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations<sup>3,4</sup>. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO<sub>2</sub> sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature
Published
2025-11-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09802-5
Citations
8
Primary Topic
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
8.84
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article

Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget

Pierre Friedlingstein, Are Olsen, Corinne Le Quéré, Pierre Regnier et al.
8 citations
Nature
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
8.84
article

Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget

Pierre Friedlingstein, Are Olsen, Corinne Le Quéré, Pierre Regnier, Glen P. Peters, Hongmei Li, Robbie M. Andrew, Auke Marijn van der Woude, Julia Pongratz, Josep G. Canadell, Michael O’Sullivan, Thomas Gasser, Stephen A. Sitch, Clemens Schwingshackl, Xin Lan, Judith Hauck, Matthew W. Jones, Philippe Ciais, Wouter Peters, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Eric J. Morgan, Dorothée C. E. Bakker, Peter Landschützer, Hanqin Tian
article en
8 citations

Abstract

Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit<sup>1,2</sup>. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers<sup>1</sup>. Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards<sup>1</sup>. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations<sup>3,4</sup>. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO<sub>2</sub> sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.

NatureVol. 649(8095)
Boston College (US), University of East Anglia (GB), Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Flanders Marine Institute (BE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), École Polytechnique (FR), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), University of Groningen (NL), University of Bremen (DE), University of Colorado Boulder (US), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), University of Exeter (GB), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), University of California San Diego (US), Sorbonne Université (FR), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR), CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), CSIRO Scientific Computing (AU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon (DE), Tyndall Centre (GB), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), ACT Government (AU), University of Bergen (NO), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE), Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
8.84
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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